Andrew Hall conceded that oil prices might be range bound for a while–basically, he’s capitulating to other pundits who have been predicting that prices will be “lower for longer.” I have no idea whether Hall is right, given that he and Jin diverge on this issue (I’m nothing if not a coattail investor).
Like dirk8, I also have some oil stocks leftover from my premium membership. I’m debating whether to scale back on those until we see at least a couple of months of prices in the low $50s. Maybe I’ll wait until the end of summer, as per Jin’s recent blog post, before I decide.
Even though I have no doubt of Jin’s integrity or expertise (even honest, smart people cannot account for every conceivable variable), and I still object to the accusatory tone of some members’ Q&A posts directed at him, I wonder if we’ve strayed somewhat from the value strategy. My understanding is that value investing is usually very “bottom-up,” meaning that as a starting point, stocks are screened based on whether they have solid ratios. Whereas predicting the direction and timing of oil prices seems to me to be a very “top-down,” macro thing. Someone please correct me if I’m wrong.