ishares XEG is lower than the 2008/9 mark. What are your analytical points (bad and good) for owning oil companies?
The bad news is that we should expect XEG to remain volatile. If Canadian oil companies continue to have a difficult time transporting their oil, then XEG could continue to go down. If they do solve that problem, however, and if oil prices hold up, then XEG should theoretically go up. I say "theoretically", because XEG won't go up until other investors start to buy shares as well.
As I mentioned in some of my other articles, oil companies are trying to solve the transportation problem. Some have signed contracts with rail companies. Some chose to shut in oil production. Some have lobbied for the province to introduce a quota system. If they can wait a bit, they'll also get the benefit of increased pipeline capacity via line 3 expansion and the keystone pipeline. So in the long term, I think the transportation issue will go away, but the wait might be up to a year.
On the other hand, current global oil prices are adequate for Canadian oil companies to generate profits with. Where global prices will go will depend on the global economy and geopolitical considerations that are hard to predict. But in general, I expect oil prices to bounce around in the $60-80/barrel range, where it has been the last year or so.
Hope that helps,
Asked: Oct 30, 2018 09:10 PM
Seen: 405 times
Last updated: Nov 05 '18