Archives July 2019

The Zeta Coefficient – A New Way to Forecast Returns Using Risk

Last update on July 29, 2019.

Image Credit: Debby Wong / Shutterstock.com

Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing

Warren Buffett

As far as superhuman powers go, the ability to accurately forecast returns probably wouldn't be many people's first choice. It's not as sexy as super speed or laser eyes. But, imagine the edge you'd have as an investor if you could look at an opportunity and predict the returns with precision. You would essentially remove all of the risk from investing: you'd be playing the game on easy mode!

Risk and returns are inter-twined. If you can assess risk accurately ...

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Why Decision Trees Work Well For Investment Analysis

Last update on July 22, 2019.

Image Credit: Boo-Tique / Shutterstock.com

 

What is the best machine learning algorithm? The answer is, unsurprisingly, “it depends.” There are many different types of machine learning algorithms, each with their own unique way of modelling the real world in some fashion.

 

Tradeoffs on Model Complexity

The best algorithm is generally one that most closely mirrors the real world. Think of each machine learning algorithm as a set of lego boxes, each containing different shapes of bricks. If you’re going to build an airplane, you’re going to do better with lego boxes containing wing shaped ...

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It's Not Just Hype - Why Machine Learning Holds So Much Promise

Last update on July 8, 2019.

Image Credit: Grigorita Ko / Shutterstock.com

 

In the book “MoneyBall”, author Michael Lewis documented the story of the Oakland A’s baseball team. Despite their shoestring budget, the A’s consistently contended with teams with far bigger budgets, such as the New York Yankees. The secret of the team’s success boiled down to one thing - the use of statistics. Instead of relying on the subjective judgements of scouts, the A’s made rational decisions on player acquisitions using data.

Unfortunately, the story doesn’t have a good epilogue. Not long after the book’s publication in 2004, the team’s standing began ...

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Gold Moves Up - But Will It Continue To?

Last update on July 1, 2019.

Image Credit: photo BC / Shutterstock.com

At the beginning of every month, I brief members on how MoneyGeek's Regular portfolios have performed and comment on the state of the financial markets. In this update, I’ll also share my thoughts on gold.

 

June Performance of Regular Portfolios

The performance of MoneyGeek's Regular portfolios for the month of June 2019 were as follows:

 

Last Month

Last 12 Months

Since Apr 2013

Aggressive

+3.4%

-5.5%

+90.2%

Growth

+3.0%

-4.2%

+76.0%

Balanced

+2.6%

-3.2%

+62.2%

Conservative

+2.2%

-2.2 ...

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